RogerBW's Blog

Eight-Sided Dice With Coin Flips 04 April 2026

I was idly musing over the unpublished nameless system from Paul MacLean and the Yog-Sothoth.com crew, and a trick occurred to me…

That system's primary mechanic involves coin flips: the easiest grade of task needs one flip to come up heads (50%), then two in a row (25%), then three in a row (12.5%) for the hardest.

(There was also an alternative system based on 3d6, but it didn't have the same odds, so I Diskard it.)

But the players, playing only once a month and not keeping the system reliably in mind, found themselves flipping all three coins and saying, well, they got at least one head, so that's a success, right?

But actually we can build any multiple of 12.5% with three coin flips, and we don't even have to keep them in order. Flipping three coins and counting heads, the possible outcomes are:

  • No heads (TTT), ⅛
  • One head (HTT, THT, TTH), ⅜
  • Two heads (HHT, HTH, THH), ⅜
  • Three heads (HHH), ⅛

And so we can combine them!

If you want a probability of ⅛: you need to get three heads.

If you want ¼: you need to get three, or zero, heads.

If you want ⅜: you need to get exactly two heads.

If you want ½: you need to get two or three heads.

If you want ⅝: you need to get zero, two or three heads.

If you want ¾: you need to get one or two heads.

If you want ⅞: you need to get one, two or three heads.

Yes, of course anyone reading this blog probably has a d8 within reach (I certainly do). But it's still fun. (And if you want an actual value from 1 to 8, flip the coins in order and read them as binary.)

Sadly you can't do this as readily for a d6 or d12, since you can't generate the divisor 3 from powers of two. Or rather you can, but you have a potentially infinite series of extra flips: in effect, roll a d8, but reroll 7s and 8s.

And you can't do the same trick with four coins: the outcomes have the probability 1-4-6-4-1, because of course it's Pascal's Triangle,, and you can't select some of those to add up to 3. (Though again you can read them in order for a number from 0 to 15.)

Tags: rpgs

Add A Comment

Your Name
Your Email
Your Comment

Note that I will only approve comments that relate to the blog post itself, not ones that relate only to previous comments. This is to ensure that the blog remains outside the scope of the UK's Online Safety Act (2023).

Your submission will be ignored if any field is left blank, but your email address will not be displayed. Comments will be processed through markdown.

Search
Archive
Tags 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2300ad 3d printing action advent of code aeronautics aikakirja anecdote animation anime army astronomy audio audio tech aviation base commerce battletech bayern beer boardgaming book of the week bookmonth chain of command children chris chronicle church of no redeeming virtues cold war comedy computing contemporary cornish smuggler cosmic encounter coup covid-19 crime crystal cthulhu eternal cycling dead of winter disaster doctor who documentary drama driving drone ecchi economics en garde espionage essen 2015 essen 2016 essen 2017 essen 2018 essen 2019 essen 2022 essen 2023 essen 2024 essen 2025 existential risk falklands war fandom fanfic fantasy feminism filk film firefly first world war flash point flight simulation food garmin drive gazebo genesys geocaching geodata gin gkp gurps gurps 101 gus harpoon historical history horror horrorm science fiction hugo 2014 hugo 2015 hugo 2016 hugo 2017 hugo 2018 hugo 2019 hugo 2020 hugo 2021 hugo 2022 hugo 2023 hugo 2024 hugo 2025 hugo-nebula reread in brief avoid instrumented life javascript julian simpson julie enfield kickstarter kotlin learn to play leaving earth linux liquor lovecraftiana lua mecha men with beards mpd museum music mystery naval noir non-fiction one for the brow openscad opera parody paul temple perl perl weekly challenge photography podcast poetry politics postscript powers prediction privacy project woolsack pyracantha python quantum rail raku ranting raspberry pi reading reading boardgames social real life restaurant review reviews romance rpg a day rpgs ruby rust scala science fiction scythe second world war security shipwreck simutrans smartphone south atlantic war squaddies stationery steampunk stuarts suburbia superheroes suspense talon television the resistance the weekly challenge thirsty meeples thriller tin soldier torg toys trailers travel type 26 type 31 type 45 typst vietnam war war wargaming weather wives and sweethearts writing about writing x-wing young adult
Special All book reviews, All film reviews
Produced by aikakirja v0.1